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Senate Analysis

May 11, 2015

Start with Flanagan holding the nine Long Islanders with D’Amato’s help. Then figure out where Golden is, which is wherever Mike Long suggests that he be. And Lanza, too – he’ll do what Long wants him to do, too.  This gets Flanagan to 11.

Then consider the Hudson Valley: Bonacic; Murphy; Serino; and Larkin. Bonacic is the key there. What deal can he cut with Flanagan? Finance chair? If so, you add the Hudson Valley to Flanagan’s tally, which goes up to 16.

Tack on Cathy Young and Nozzolio for Flanagan. DeFran and Young don’t get a along. DeFran and Nozzolio had a falling out over something that occurred at their law firm. 18.

Add O’Mara, whom D’Amato could influence. 19

Wild cards: Marchione; Funke; Seward.

Marchione? She’d get calls from both D’Amato and Bruno. Bruno and DeFran? At the end, their relationship was strained.  20.

Funke? He really didn’t like being mentioned in Preet’s complaint and wants nothing to do with the downstaters.  So the count stays at 20.

Seward? Wild card of wild cards. But more than anyone, he’d be someone to look at the numbers, which already would show critical mass for Flanagan. And as Seward goes, everyone else goes. At that point, whole thing happens by consensus for Flanagan.

And DeFran, who might have had the numbers last week, would be kicking himself as yet another pol who waited too long to force the issue.

And yet, on the other hand, what if DeFran picked off, say, LaValle? What if he promised him the Finance Chair? What if D’Amato’s heavy hand alienates some of the members? What if Bonacic thinks of himself as an upstater and Larkin respects seniority?

What if Libous makes a surprise visit and offers a passionate appeal for the conference to avoid civil strife and go with DeFran as a transitional (year and a half) leader?

Then DeFran might take it.

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2 Comments leave one →
  1. Anonymous permalink
    May 12, 2015 5:10 PM

    You really nailed it. Bonacic sold out. And Seward caved at the end when he saw Flanagan gaining.

  2. Loose Cannon permalink
    May 14, 2015 1:02 AM

    Thoughts on Seward: How ironic the day he was being assailed from all sides to vote against Deano, Seward was literally fighting a huge flood and “boil water” advisory in his little burg up there due to the crumbling infrastructure the career degenerate politicians neglected for decades.

    It seemed lost on Seward that the very same fund Deano and Adam were fleecing would have been the fund he needs to get at to fix his own problems.

    So what did the spineless one do? The troll voted for Flanagan as soon as he saw how it was going.

    You predicted this. Good one guys!

    Upshot: All powers that be have decreed Seward “is gone ASAP” and nobody’s putting up a fight over it.

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