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The Math

January 28, 2015

Let’s move on to the math because that’s all that matters now.

There are 63 members from New York City, 25 from the upstate and 18 from the suburbs.

There are 72 men and 34 women.

There are 67 whites and 39 people of color.

Of the 34 women members, 20 are white, 11 are black and three are Hispanic.

Of the 39 people of color, 25 are black, 13 are Hispanic and one is Asian.

Of the 25 blacks, 14 are men and 11 are women, 18 of them are from the city, four are from the suburbs and three are from upstate.

The question is this: Based on this math, how will someone in the Assembly get to the magic number of 54, which is needed to win the Speakership?

Looking at it purely by the numbers, the only imperative seems to be regional. In this regard, if all the city members vote as a bloc, they could name the next Speaker now.

But if it turns out that more than one person from the city seeks the post, that advantage is lost.

If, for example, Heastie, Wright and Cathy Nolan split the city vote, then a candidate with unified upstate and suburban support would certainly be competitive.

And Morrelle does appear to have a more unified base that others, but he still has trouble getting to 54.

So then what? Only one thing is clear from the math – the next Speaker will have to cobble it together.  That will be difficult. That will take time. And it will require a person who is good at math.

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