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We’ll Take “Comeback Kid” in Fourth

August 26, 2010

Forget about waterboarding, just bring the Guantanamo detainees to Saratoga. Give them a cigar and drink, let them place a bet or two, let them ogle the ladies in sun dresses, and then sit back and take notes on what you hear. It certainly works for top political operatives in both parties, hence this report from one of our associates who was at the track recently:
Stach is a goner. Quinn is off-the-charts popular even with the Dems.
Foley is in deep trouble. His position on the commuter tax has hurt him badly.
Valesky and Aubertine, thought to be safe, are now in play.
Oppenheimer is in real race, and Breslin, too.

Meanwhile, Dem pickups are looking more and more doubtful. Padavan has a solid lead over Avella. Hannon’s lead over Mejias has widened. Farley is hanging on versus Savage. And the open Liebell and Winner seats look like holds.
If the election is held tomorrow, the Republicans take control 33-29.
One strange caveat for the GOP: Favorables on incumbents like Farley are high, but the hard re-elect is not. It might be something, or it might be nothing if the Dem “discount rate” is really the four to six percentage points predicted earlier in the year.
Of course, you have to remember what this is: Handicapping of a political race at a horse race based on polling information that is fluctuating.
Still, who wants to bet against the GOP?

3 Comments leave one →
  1. anon permalink
    August 26, 2010 10:55 PM

    Auberitne is finished. Big wind controversy won’t go away and Ritchie has a huge Facebook following and signs all over.

  2. Russell permalink
    August 26, 2010 11:38 PM

    Andrew Cuomo will win by 30 points. Schumer by 30 points. Gilli probably by 15-20 points. There will be Dem coattails. Name me an instance where top of the ticket candidates win like that, but have NO coattails.

  3. what cottails permalink
    August 28, 2010 3:18 PM

    Obama carried Robach’s and Padavan’s districts nearly 2:1, but they still won reelection despite facing strong Democratic opponents who engaged in heavy negative advertising. So much for cottails.

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